Cuba, the Pending Transition

This article analyses the question of succession that is already beginning to emerge in Cuba. The key question is whether the regime that replaces the current one will manage to stabilise a new status quo similar to that of China or Vietnam.

Fidel Castro had been in charge in Cuba for more than 47 years. Although a transition -which can only be to democracy- is nowhere in sight, the question of succession is already beginning to emerge. The interim transfer of power to Raúl Castro, signed by his brother Fidel on 31 July, 2006, was an historic milestone. The proclamation of the temporary transfer of power is in itself a document that reveals the almost total power wielded by Fidel. Another thing that stands out is that the proclamation made no mention of the economy in terms of everyday consumption. What kind of political class will surface in Cuba?