North Korea and the Non-proliferation Regime

In this review of the implications of North Korea’s behaviour during 2009 on the Non-proliferation Regime, it is stressed that if North Korea cannot be deterred from its nuclear ambitions this will deliver a serious blow to the international non-proliferation regime. It will also damage the likelihood of a successful outcome at next year’s NPT Review Conference.

The behaviour of North Korea so far, and especially during 2009, can be summarised as follows: failed satellite test in April, nuclear test in May, missile tests in July and additional tests of short-range missiles in October. This seems to imply that North Korea has now made its strategic choice between conciliation and hostility and that Pyongyang believes that its future security could be better preserved by maintaining a robust nuclear weapons programme. The implications of a nuclear North Korea range from diverse strategic concerns to serious humanitarian issues, while the US is faced with a number of different options, including engagement, deterrence, military pre-emption and regime change. However, all of these options have serious limitations and none promises to achieve the goal of a non-nuclear North Korea anytime soon.