The Expanding European Union: How to Evaluate the Policy? What Prospects for Spain’s Presidency?

How should we judge the success of the EU’s enlargement policy? What can Spain expect to achieve in this field during its EU Presidency in 2010?

The EU’s ‘strategy for enlargement’ is essentially reactive: not driven by a grand design on the part of the existing members, but by pressure from countries wanting to join. The criteria for evaluating the success of the policy are two-fold: (1) for the period before membership they are similar to normal criteria for foreign policy; but (2) for the period after accession they are more complex, since each expansion affects the composition and identity of the EU itself. The last round in 2004 and 2007, when the EU grew from 15 to 27 members, was a considerable success on both sets of criteria. In the current round the EU is dealing with prospective members whose situation and prospects are very different: Turkey, the countries of the Western Balkans and Iceland. The phenomenon of ‘enlargement fatigue’ should not deter the EU from pursuing its expansion in a rational way. During its EU Presidency in the first half of 2010 Spain is not expected to achieve a major breakthrough in enlargement policy, but should ensure that steady progress is made in preparations for membership by the countries concerned.