Prospects for North Korea-South Korea Relations after the Cheonan Incident

This ARI explores the situation in the Korean peninsula after the sinking of the Cheonan on 26 March 2010 and stresses the need for a new South Korean policy towards the North.

We are entering the final stage of the Cheonan incident, following the adoption of the UN Security Council President’s Statement of 9 July 2010. There will now be a period of either stalemate or confrontation between the two Koreas. And North Korea is very likely to engage in its traditional peace offensive vis-à-vis the outside world. To manage North Korea’s challenges in the coming days, South Korea should consider the following: (1) taking a long-term comprehensive approach towards North Korea geared towards achieving a fundamental change in the North; (2) enhancing its defence posture in various ways to deny North Korea’s political and military objectives; (3) further strengthening its international cooperation networks, including its links to China; and (4) consolidating domestic support for its policy towards North Korea.