North Africa: Grappling with Demography

This paper discusses the general nature of current demographic trends. The purpose is to offer a more nuanced view of part of the world’s population development. In particular, I will show that the demographic transition, while similar in developed and developing countries, gives rise to an emerging demographic cleavage between developed and developing countries. It is not unlikely that this emerging cleavage could change the conditions for international relations in very substantial ways, and possibly give way to a new world order.The focus of this paper is on demographic changes in the Mediterranean region. I shall contrast demographic developments on both the southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The countries included on the European side, defined here as Southern Europe, are France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The countries constituting North Africa are Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunis. The purpose of the comparison is to show how similar demographic trends in North Africa and in Southern Europe give rise to sometimes very different general developments. These opposite developments are, in turn, likely to affect the general performance (political and economic) of the countries in the region. They could be beneficial if used to our advantage; if ignored, they are potentially dangerous and could be a source of conflict and tension in the region.